#720 Global Liquidity Has Peaked with Michael Howell

A data-driven briefing on a rolling global liquidity peak, the late‑2020s debt‑refinancing wall, and the geopolitical tug‑of‑war between China’s gold strategy and US stablecoin/digital payments.

Key Takeaways

Global liquidity has likely peaked and momentum is rolling over, signaling a potential multi‑year tightening that raises systemic market risk—track GLI and liquidity momentum metrics.
A massive debt‑refinancing wall through the late 2020s raises rollover risk; expect repeated QE, debt monetization, and closer Fed–Treasury coordination to backstop markets.
China is shifting reserves into gold and commodities, mobilizing Shanghai gold for settlements and building a gold‑backed monetary sphere while tightening domestic crypto use.
The US is countering with digital payments and stablecoins to sustain dollar primacy; watch the Clarity Act, bank vs crypto yield‑sharing debates, and regulatory outcomes.
Investment implications: gold benefits from China‑driven reserve flows; Bitcoin acts as a liquidity canary—may underperform near term but could rally toward ~$90k long term; consider both in allocation.
Watch key market signals: bond term premium, yield‑curve slope, repo spreads, debt maturity walls, and the global liquidity cycle to time risk‑on/risk‑off shifts.
Prioritize custody and operational security for crypto: noncustodial multisig, hardware Faraday protection, verifiable on‑chain collateral, and trusted vault providers to avoid counterparty losses.

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