#739: Quarterly Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis

This episode argues Bitcoin's high‑R² 'power trend' could reshape money, examines geopolitical and monetary risks, and gives actionable custody and market tactics.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin follows a strong power‑law trend (high R², historically ~40% CAGR); use power‑curve fits and quantile regression as objective support levels for timing buys and risk management.
Gold has behaved like an exponential asset (~5.3% CAGR since 1971); consider reallocating toward Bitcoin while keeping some gold as portfolio insurance.
Institutional adoption can co‑opt Bitcoin via KYC products and fixed‑yield structures — prioritize self‑custody (multisig, BitKey) to retain permissionless withdrawal ability.
Macro tail risks — expanding central‑bank balance sheets, dollar hegemony erosion, asset freezes (e.g., Tether) — increase demand for neutral reserve rails like Bitcoin.
Geopolitical authoritarianism (Russia's internet shutdown, war) shows censorship and collapse risks; Bitcoin’s private‑key transactions, node/hashrate distribution offer resilience.
Expect volatility: four‑year cycle may peak ~2025; tactical ideas include writing ETF puts in limited capital, buying bear‑range support, and monitoring political events.

Original Source

Visit Source