"Bitcoin Will Bottom When This Happens" | Ben Cowen

Key Takeaways

• Ben assigns ~25% chance the Bitcoin cycle low is already in; he views the market as a bear and sees a realistic downside range near $30–50k, with brief breaks below $60k possible.
• Bear markets often trend higher for long stretches before sharp declines; track BTC percent of supply in profit/loss and realized/balance prices for reliable cycle-bottom signals.
• Altcoins behave like a casino and continue bleeding to Bitcoin; expect prediction markets and utility-focused tokens to replace meme-driven alt seasons as many current alts vanish.
• Look for gains outside crypto: energy (late-cycle oil plays), metals, manufacturing, Latin/South America indices, and stocks that swept pandemic lows as durable entry points.
• Macro and geopolitical risks (midterm-year dynamics, rising oil/inflation, and heightened rhetoric) can reset cycles and delay Fed easing, influencing asset allocation and timing.
• Practical timing: new all-time highs are unlikely this year; prepare for a protracted multi-year cycle with the next major cycle likely between 2027–2029 and avoid excessive leverage.

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