Bitcoin’s Next Move Could Shock Everyone

Macro, Bitcoin, and geopolitics collide: Jeff Ross explains why Bitcoin may fall short-term as liquidity shifts, yet long-term demand and power‑law dynamics support hodlers.

Key Takeaways

Short-term bearish for Bitcoin: technical 'bear-flag' plus slowing global liquidity implies a 65–70% chance of a downleg toward $50k–$60k; consider scaling in and hedging.
Long-term Bitcoin thesis intact: power‑law growth channel and steady buying by long-term savers suggest a durable lower bound and eventual upside during liquidity booms.
Policy and politics favor select sectors: government borrowing funnels capital into AI, data centers, energy, and military, narrowing market breadth and lifting a few mega-cap winners.
Trump’s pro‑Bitcoin rhetoric hasn’t translated: administration actions prioritize stablecoins and broader crypto agendas; strategic Bitcoin reserves are not a government priority.
Geopolitical risk matters: U.S. pressure on Iran’s oil exports creates dollar/oil uncertainty—monitor oil, dollar moves, and ISM PMI for market direction.
Invest with probability frameworks: use partial entries, hedges (options/shorts), and dollar‑cost averaging; reduce social‑media noise and follow curated Substacks for higher-signal insight.

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