Bits + Bips: Bitcoin Finally Acted Like a Hedge. Will It Last?

GSR’s Andy Bear breaks down crypto’s market-structure shift: 24/7 trading, stablecoin scale, tokenization pilots, liquidity costs, and where volatility and institutional access head next.

Key Takeaways

Regulatory and market plumbing evolving: CFTC laying groundwork for 24/7 derivatives; likely path is extended traditional exchange hours rather than wholesale perp-driven clearing.
Stablecoin and chain dynamics: Stablecoins near $317B, ~half on Ethereum with Solana growing; Bitcoin supply has topped ~20M and network activity remains strong.
Liquidity is paid-for and strategic: Good liquidity costs money—market-makers will matter; expect active trading and continued deleveraging risk from options and lending strains.
Watch volatility and hedges: Elevated VIX reflects tactical equity put buying; monitor perpetual funding and Aave USDC rates to gauge market energy and positioning.
Tokenization advances, but access and liquidity uncertain: Major exchanges piloting tokenized equities; tech feasible, yet institutional access and sustainable secondary liquidity remain open questions.
Reassess safe havens: Bitcoin acted like a haven during Gulf tensions while Treasuries underperformed and the dollar stayed resilient—diversify and keep dry powder.
Macro tailwinds and rotation risks: AI and blockchain adoption continues; rising DeFi borrowing rates and commodity moves could spur Q2 volatility and rotations into gold and crypto.

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