Bits + Bips: What Happens to Markets Now That the U.S. Has Struck Iran?

A geopolitical markets playbook: Signum's Charles Myers explains how 'America First' reshapes foreign policy, AI governance, and energy risk—and what investors should do now.

Key Takeaways

Signum's approach: decompose geopolitical events into discrete risks, prioritize client exposures, and recommend tactical adaptations rather than relying on pattern recognition or AI forecasts.
'America First' now extends to foreign policy—expect protectionism, tariffs, industrial policy, reshoring, and government equity stakes in strategic industries, altering supply chains and investment winners.
Iran and Venezuela are top flashpoints: leadership shifts raise escalation risk and could trigger significant oil-price spikes; monitor short-term conflict probabilities priced into markets.
AI sector watch: OpenAI and cloud vendors face valuation and operational risks; governments likely to regulate heavily or provide backstops/equity stakes—track chipmakers, data centers, and energy demand.
Crypto outlook: Myers prefers dollar‑pegged stablecoins supported by legislation for reserve use; Bitcoin remains speculative, retail-driven, and not a reliable fundamental hedge.
Prediction/ betting markets are a useful input but vulnerable to insider trading and perverse incentives; use cautiously and expect increased regulation and oversight.
Investor positioning: clients split between defensive cash/gold and offensive risk assets; bond yields and political/legal 'guardrails' (10‑yr yield thresholds, court decisions) will shape policy shocks.

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