Has Bitcoin Bottomed? Jordi Visser on AI, Inflation, and Moats

AI reshapes markets: expect short‑run commodity inflation but long‑term deflation, lifting scarce hardware, energy and Bitcoin while pressuring software incumbents.

Key Takeaways

AI creates mixed macro outcomes: underinvestment drives interim commodity and energy inflation, but durable productivity gains point toward long‑term deflation and falling labor costs.
Compute and energy scarcity—chips, memory, power, copper, silver—limit AI scale, elevating semiconductors, hardware suppliers, miners, and energy producers as strategic assets.
Bitcoin benefits as a scarcity, non‑fiat store of value when CPI outpaces short‑term rates and the Fed holds; ETF and retail inflows diversify holders and deepen adoption.
Actionable allocation: rotate from AI‑vulnerable software/SaaS into scarcity plays—NVIDIA, DRAM/memory names, lithium, silver miners, and energy/commodity producers.
Public firms with large fixed costs, stock‑based comp, private credit exposures, and financials are most at risk; startups and AI‑native entrepreneurs likely capture most new value.
Geopolitics and hardware rivalry matter: Chinese model advances (e.g., DeepSea) and export controls could spur semiconductor volatility—sell‑offs may create buying opportunities.

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