Hivemind: State of The Market, Saylor’s End Game & AI Growth in China

Key Takeaways

• Adopt a defensive posture amid Middle East supply risks: hedge, sell rallies, keep long-term core holdings, and redeploy capital only after conflict clarity.
• STRC dividend mechanics offer high effective yields but risk dilution and MNAV pressure; monitor share issuance and the fund’s Bitcoin-selling incentives closely.
• Proximity to production drives rapid hardware innovation—Xiaomi’s ‘dark factory’ (500k sq ft, robot arms, one car every 90s) shows scale accelerates iteration.
• China’s regulatory tilt toward onshore/red‑chip listings, founder controls, and occasional detentions caps public upside and shifts private-market exit dynamics.
• RMB appears undervalued; gradual appreciation would ease trade tensions, move resources toward consumers, and reduce state allocation power over strategic industries.
• On-the-ground China: Shenzhen’s fast growth, deep AI/hardware talent, and hardworking founders create alpha by pairing Chinese manufacturing with Western front-end expertise.

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