Is Bitcoin About to Rally? New Onchain Data Reveals What’s Really Happening w/ Julio Moreno

On-chain metrics show Bitcoin's bear market easing — demand contraction slowed and selling pressure fell, but key resistance near $66k–$86k keeps a bull regime out of reach for now.

Key Takeaways

On-chain "bull score" rose to ~30 (0–100), signaling easing but still inside a bear market; a sustained spike to 60–80+ would mark a regime shift to bull territory.
Apparent spot demand improved from −136k BTC to −46k BTC (start of 2026→today) using an inventory-style method; contraction slowed but may persist through 2026.
Unrealized losses peaked near $60k, which reduced selling pressure and triggered a relief rally to ~$75k; capitulation removed much of prior sell pressure.
Long-term holder selling spiked Nov–Dec 2024 (~100k BTC near 80–90k) then declined; recent lowest 30-day selling pace since June 2025 eases downward price risk.
Stablecoin liquidity and USDT market-cap trends contracted but stabilized; Coinbase price premium flipped positive briefly, indicating temporary stronger U.S. demand.
Average realized purchase-price bands act as support in rallies and resistance in declines; expect meaningful resistance around $66k–$86k (76k–86k noted), with pullbacks possible.

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