Is This The Start Of A Financial Crisis? | Jeff Snider

A deep look at a private‑credit bubble, Fed limits, and market signals — actionable trades on Treasuries, Bitcoin, and safe‑haven allocations.

Key Takeaways

Shadow‑banking and private‑credit booms featured lax due diligence; forced selling can cascade from stage two to three. Monitor outflows, bank pullbacks, and liquidity stress.
Markets price lower long‑term rates; expect front‑end yields to fall and the curve to steepen 200–300 bps. Two‑year Treasuries (~3.4–3.5%) and T‑bills are tactical opportunities.
The Fed’s influence is limited and delayed; policy works with long, unpredictable lags and via market belief. Plan for a gradual, drawn‑out rate‑cut cycle rather than quick fixes.
Bitcoin functions as a liquidity smoke alarm and marginal institutional risk asset. Rollover signaled private‑credit stress; strong buy near $30k, opportunistic buys at ~$50k and ~$20k.
AI will boost productivity and eliminate some jobs, likely shortening workweeks over a decade. UBI won't fully replace earned‑income effects; policy responses are constrained.
Position for stress: prioritize liquidity and downside protection, hold safe havens (gold, silver), and be ready to buy deeply discounted assets during forced‑sale panics.