Michael Saylor Just Bought $2.5B of Bitcoin in a Bear Market… What Does He Know? w/ John Gillen

A deep dive into the Aave rETH incident, market reactions, and tactical guidance for investors—plus macro catalysts and where to find John’s ongoing analysis.

Key Takeaways

Aave faced ~$293M of bad debt from fake rETH collateral; liquidity pools were frozen, safety module held ~ $50M, estimated shortfall ~ $140M, and TVL dropped ~$8–9B.
Clarification: Aave itself wasn’t hacked — the exploit involved external bad collateral/bridge activity (Kelps); verify claims before amplifying panic.
Market reaction was fear-driven: DeFi withdrawals surged, fees temporarily rose, but protocol fundamentals and ongoing product activity suggest potential mispricing.
Trading posture: Bitcoin range ~60k–77k; set bids around $60k/$58k for dips, monitor for potential bear-flag continuation or upside breakout over coming weeks.
Macro watchlist: Kevin Warsh hearings, Trump–Xi dynamics, Hormuz Strait risks, and fuel shortages could quickly shift sentiment and capital flows.
Investment process: Don’t sell in May reflexively; build conviction aligned to your capital/timeline, avoid copying others’ positions, and use fear-driven dips selectively.
Resources: Milk Road Pro offers John’s macro newsletter, watch lists, and a $1 seven-day trial plus Saturday-night Discord access for deeper discussion.

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