Ten31 Timestamp: The Die Is Cast

Fed liquidity, rising Treasury funding, and miners shifting to AI compute collide in this episode—unpacking Bitcoin’s plunge, market stress, and why RMP could become permanent.

Key Takeaways

The Fed's RMP boosted reserves and may act as a structural buyer, absorbing roughly $480B/year in bill purchases; Treasury plans assume continued Fed participation, understating issuance risk.
Independent estimates (CBO/OMB) foresee more borrowing than Treasury forecasts; if GDP and AI-driven growth disappoint, private investors must absorb larger deficits and RMP could persist.
Liquidity pressure from QT runoff and heavy front-end treasury issuance strained markets; Bitcoin's drop from ~$90k to ~$62k signals liquidity stress and elevated risk for leveraged holders.
Miners are shifting rigs toward AI/HPC compute or selling equipment; tax depreciation softens cash pricing and the pivot is unlikely to trigger a sudden, lasting hashrate collapse.
Policy-driven structural change continues: tariffs and industrial reshoring proceed despite court limits, while leaders acknowledge a move toward multipolar, multicurrency dynamics.
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