The End of the One-World System Has Started | Michael Every

Michael Every explains how the Iran-Israel crisis is reshaping energy markets, drone warfare, and U.S. economic statecraft—and what investors and policymakers should prepare for.

Key Takeaways

Conflict dynamics: Iran, Israel, and potential backers (Russia, China, North Korea) raise escalation risk; proxy support could globalize the war, though full backing remains unconfirmed.
Energy markets: Physical control of oil, diesel, and refined products breaks the one-price assumption—regional shortages and bottlenecks can spike local prices and destabilize politics.
U.S. strategy: Economic statecraft (tariffs, subsidies, reindustrialization, securing rare earths) seeks to preserve dollar leverage and counter China, accepting high fiscal and geopolitical costs.
Military tech shift: Cheap, proliferated drones plus local intelligence lower strike costs, enable targeted killings, and force rapid adoption of anti-drone defenses and tactics.
Portfolio guidance: Map who wants what, who knows what, and the returns others will accept; use scenario frameworks and counterfactuals to stress-test allocations, not precise forecasts.
Historical framing: Study 17th–20th-century crises and 1930s counterfactuals; expect a fragmented world order, extreme policy tools, and broader-than-normal Overton windows.

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