The Four Year Cycle Is Not Broken | Matthew Mezinskis

A deep dive into Bitcoin's power‑law price model, four‑year cycle, and macro drivers—actionable insights on valuation, custody, tax benefits, and probabilistic forecasts.

Key Takeaways

Power‑law model retains strong fit (~96% R²); quantile regression shows Bitcoin trading near historical bottoms relative to the trend—evaluate price via trend bands before trading.
Four‑year cycle remains intact despite deviations; price sits below the power curve about two‑thirds of the time—combine cycle timing with trend bands to assess entry risk.
Probabilistic forecasts: model projects ~ $124K by 03/02/2026 and long‑run quantiles toward $235K–$550K by 2029–2030—treat these as scenario-based guides, not certainties.
Central bank balance sheets and money printing can influence Bitcoin but correlations are inconsistent—do not assume Fed easing guarantees a Bitcoin surge.
Practical takeaways: miners qualify for 100% bonus depreciation under Section 168(k); Anchor Watch offers Lloyd’s‑insured, time‑locked multisig custody starting near 0.55%.
Volatility appears to be damping: percentile bands are converging and extreme multipliers (7.7×/0.1×) are less likely—expect lower amplitude booms and longer cycle durations.

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