The Next Bitcoin Bull Run Could Start In A Crisis | Jordi Visser

A wide-ranging look at mounting private-credit contagion, macro triggers, and how Bitcoin, tokenization, and AI tools reshape liquidity, risk, and opportunistic positioning this year.

Key Takeaways

Private credit is a systemic threat: a $3–4T market with hidden leverage, redemptions, and gates that could require central-bank liquidity backstops this year—prepare for contagion to jobs and markets.
Bitcoin and tokenized assets provide transparent, liquid alternatives; Bitcoin (~$1.5T market) often rallies after financial shocks—position for capital rotating into liquid asymmetric assets.
Monitor macro triggers: oil sustained above $80 risks negative Q2 GDP; financials below their 200-day averages, rising VIX, and widening credit spreads increase recession and market downside odds.
AI compresses innovation cycles ~10x—software moats erode quickly, agents can replace traditional sales, and AI-native companies can scale revenue extremely fast; reassess long-duration bets.
Practical tooling: Bitget ($4B daily volume, 79 instruments, up to 500x leverage) and Arch Public automate crypto strategies; use GitHub and open-source LLMs to build portfolio risk models and prototypes.
Tactical guidance: remain defensive, trim illiquid long-locked exposures, focus research on semiconductors, commodities, and Bitcoin, and be ready to deploy capital after stabilization.

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