The Real Bull Case: Why Coinbase Could Explode When Crypto Recovers

Martin and Aljid unpack Coinbase’s earnings, showing a profitable core beneath unrealized losses and a strategic shift toward durable subscription and stablecoin revenue investors should track.

Key Takeaways

Reported net loss was driven by unrealized crypto write-downs; adjusted EBITDA (~$500M) reveals a profitable core business once mark-to-market losses are excluded.
Coinbase now has twelve product lines exceeding $100M ARR; subscription and services revenue grew sixfold in five years, providing more durable, less price-sensitive income.
Transaction revenue still ≈40% of total but is declining; monitor retail trading volume and market sentiment, which drive short-term revenue swings.
Stablecoins/USDC are a material revenue source (~20%); a pending USDC contract renegotiation and lower rates could pressure yields—track contract terms and stablecoin demand.
Coinbase is investing in infrastructure (layer-two, Ethereum standards), growing AUM and institutional flows; paired with Robinhood, owning both offers diversified fintech exposure.
Key metrics to watch: subscription & services revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA, plus USDC contract developments as indicators of sustainable, price-independent revenue.

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