The Real Plan Behind Trump, Iran, and Oil (with Mel Mattison)

Mel Madison and guest unpack how AI-driven deflation, oil geopolitics, and Fed policy will reshape markets, portfolios, and political risk.

Key Takeaways

Trump’s Venezuela–Iran oil moves aim to pressure China; a Strait of Hormuz shock could spike oil, inflation, and political risk ahead of midterms.
Hold core cash, large gold, and Bitcoin; diversify into emerging markets (Brazil, Mexico) and physical assets, using option protection and small tail-risk SPY calls.
AI-driven productivity could create deflationary pressure, potentially enabling up to four rate cuts; the Fed may expand its balance sheet in crisis despite political constraints.
Gold and Bitcoin are positioned as non–cash-flow stores of excess liquidity; Bitcoin could materially outperform with modest inflows while US mega-cap tech may lag.
Prepare for wide market outcomes: a 10–12% correction (buying opportunity) or a sharp rally; use nimble hedges since algorithms amplify news moves.
Military strategy favors quick, decisive operations given limited munitions; Iran’s militia, underground capabilities, and martyrdom culture complicate prolonged conflict.
Actionable allocation: make MSCI All‑World ex‑US euro‑hedged your largest equity holding, gradually reduce US-heavy software exposure, and raise unhedged EM positions.