Why 10x Research Sees a Bitcoin Drop to $50,000 This Summer | Markets Outlook

Markus Thielen breaks down October’s market-wide liquidations, ETF pressures, and a liquidity gap at $87k that may extend Bitcoin’s downturn—plus timing and macro catalysts to watch.

Key Takeaways

October 10 liquidations were market‑wide, not one firm; Hyperliquid volumes spiked from $5B to $28B and accounted for roughly 53% of that day’s liquidations.
Multi‑strategy funds likely didn’t short puts; institutional selling and ETF flows—$54B bought at ~$90k now ~$10–12B underwater—forced redemptions and reaccumulation failed.
An $87k liquidity gap flipped negative, prompting market makers to sell futures to hedge negative gamma; cascading liquidations and stop‑loss selling compounded the decline.
Analysts frame the move as a B wave likely evolving into a C wave; a ~60% correction is plausible, with a potential target near $50k and risk of retesting prior lows.
Timing and catalysts: earliest bottom signs could show in April, with the FIFA World Cup a possible bottom window; Powell/Walsh nomination tone could trigger rebounds if dovish.
Macro headwinds: stronger US data (ISM >50) lowered rate‑cut expectations, removing previous BTC tailwinds; crypto‑native holders have already liquidated a large portion.

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